In November 2025, Cyclone Ditwah swept across Sri Lanka, bringing nearly 10% of annual rainfall in a single day, triggering floods and landslides, affecting nearly every region, and causing damage worth billions of dollars. Within weeks, the island swung to the opposite extreme: prolonged dry spells strained domestic water supplies, before a depression in the Bay of Bengal brought fresh flooding to several districts.This violent swing between too much water and too little is no longer the exception. The outlook is sobering. Forecasters point to the likelihood of a strong El Niño in 2026–2027. Past strong El Niño events, such as in 2015-2016, have brought severe floods followed by widespread drought, and devastated livelihoods across the country.

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